Amazing Euro Configuration. Heading to the trap!
Simply put, a long Term Trend needs a sudden tumble.
Equities have not tumbled to the utmost yet. All in all, at least 50% Fibo should be reached or support MA200 to hold for few days/week before new low than 2006’s is seen. That is technical. However, fundamentally speaking, there is no better news than the technical. That view just presented is not mine, as you know I trade based on my OCTOPUS formula that comprises neither technical nor fundamental figures. Besides, my target in equities is lower than 2006 low and that mentioned on my December newsletter 2006.
Euro new high move in the last 3 days was pip by pip, and that has a good correlation with the trend in the weeks ahead.
My view for the European and the US market argues well with the technical and fundamental pictures that the media is presenting. US economic growth is about to be picked up again, and as soon as it climbs the ladder, we would note a reinforcement in the dollar. Such dollar (usdjpy) support has a 125 /127 /130 as a consequence, and the euro down-swings towards 116/110.
Amazingly though, & as I usually call my EURCHF trade a ‘turtle,’ that slow motion movement gave me hard time to catch. Who can not catch a turtle? Believe me, I tried, and found out that I needed help of 2 and even 3 ‘Survivors’ to support my turtle trade argument. When I longed it, I had to survive it to reverse, and when I reversed it, I had to survive it to go back to long, and such movement was traded 4 times to accumulate only a lucrative amount of pips equal 14. In the end, it was an enjoyable positive trade, though it was not worth the time and margin. Yet, I am preparing a ‘compensating’ one again in the near term.
Conclusion: Even 1 pip in the market so to be achieved, and / or with a slow currency movement like eurchf / eurgbp (or low volatility), needs a lot of studies and calculations before traded. That is why cautious and well implemented ‘Survivor’ entries are needed. Below are the eurchf trades:
Oldies Kryptonite
Tread Carefully: GBPCHF: 24900 should be screened within less than 7 days. That view has not changed but it would be delayed due to the sell off in equities and FTSE, where we should be waiting for Long Term Traders to reposition themselves (24100 should be temporary holding the ups where an avowed exit is an intent). This Week: The market narrowed its wave to 23900 which should be corrected to 24100.
Euro has not met yet 13025/60 which is a good target. It is on the way, but might chop towards the top first with a new weekly high. This Week: The market marked new high on a basis of one pip at a time, and it is depriving the screen of 13025/60 for the second week. There is no third week.
Bi-monthly free trade of 55 pips Short position triggered. Reminder of the trade:
And the market squeezes again my target between 1 and 10 pips. EURCAD records my target at 15503 and as the currency spread is over 9 pips, position was not closed, and I have no intention to close it manually. As such, trade is still open.
Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***
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posted by Anthony Samaha @ 5:33 AM
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