Yen & Equities Invincibility: No Room 4 Complacency!?

Yen Japanese Golden Week is usually famous by illiquidity behaviour and low volume and as such there is no respect for your supports or resistances, and closing week/month. Although the weekly close is low, and expectation to be the same during the end of April, a scary reversal move is of no escape. Coinciding with ‘end of month’ on Monday and closing books, such behaviour should lead to a vicious trend reversal in Yen & Equities, most probably next week.

No change in my view regarding such vicious reversal, and only few weird triggering are needed.
Last, Yen carry trades are exhausted, and the abated daily movements are jousted with their trend lines.

Long Term Yen crosses provisions: eurjpy, gbpjpy, nzdjpy, audjpy, & sgdjpy long term downtrend of almost 2 decades has been halted as of first quarter of 2007. The world is changing and yen can no longer be considered a ‘strong’ currency for the next 5 to 10 years. We will see levels like 350 in gbpjpy, 2.000 in eurjpy, 1.5 in dollar yen, etc… (This small provision has nothing to do with daily.weekly. trades). As for now, I am looking for eurjpy to meet 15000, even lower.

As for Equities, the same warning is implied regarding S&P, Dax, Dow, & NASDAQ. The formation of the top is a yearly one and has almost concluded. We start looking for the bottom to exist this year.


Gold As described on my newsletter dated 05 April, <>

Gold indeed formed a ‘false break candle bars from 16 April and for 08 days before it tumbled to 67285 as of this time of writing. Illustration of false break is seen on drawing a trendline from top 73025 dated 2006/05/12 to the top of 68880 dated 2007/02/28. Weekly close was below that formidable trendline supporting my view of 585 in the next 20 days.

*** What is not seen however is how on 05 April 2007 a false break was calculated ahead of ‘false break formation debut’ on 16 April that lasted the 08 days.




Oldies Kryptonite:


- Bi-Monthly free Trade of 55 pips: Mission Completed.

Reminder of the trade: Long 24185 targeting 24240


- ForexSurvivor EURCAD Long Term Trade is approaching its target at 14930. This Week, eurcad lowered to 15250, and at 15000 we are getting out of our long term trade. It pays being patient as its interest rate is favouring the trade. This week: No Change in View – we are on hold.

ü Yen is in the last phase of its correction. Sharply resumption of its upward trend is expected within the next 3 days. This week: Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high, and the unwinding of long yen is not muted during the Golden Week of Japan.





Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer