Yen & Equities Invincibility: No Room 4 Complacency!?

Yen Japanese Golden Week is usually famous by illiquidity behaviour and low volume and as such there is no respect for your supports or resistances, and closing week/month. Although the weekly close is low, and expectation to be the same during the end of April, a scary reversal move is of no escape. Coinciding with ‘end of month’ on Monday and closing books, such behaviour should lead to a vicious trend reversal in Yen & Equities, most probably next week.

No change in my view regarding such vicious reversal, and only few weird triggering are needed.
Last, Yen carry trades are exhausted, and the abated daily movements are jousted with their trend lines.

Long Term Yen crosses provisions: eurjpy, gbpjpy, nzdjpy, audjpy, & sgdjpy long term downtrend of almost 2 decades has been halted as of first quarter of 2007. The world is changing and yen can no longer be considered a ‘strong’ currency for the next 5 to 10 years. We will see levels like 350 in gbpjpy, 2.000 in eurjpy, 1.5 in dollar yen, etc… (This small provision has nothing to do with daily.weekly. trades). As for now, I am looking for eurjpy to meet 15000, even lower.

As for Equities, the same warning is implied regarding S&P, Dax, Dow, & NASDAQ. The formation of the top is a yearly one and has almost concluded. We start looking for the bottom to exist this year.


Gold As described on my newsletter dated 05 April, <>

Gold indeed formed a ‘false break candle bars from 16 April and for 08 days before it tumbled to 67285 as of this time of writing. Illustration of false break is seen on drawing a trendline from top 73025 dated 2006/05/12 to the top of 68880 dated 2007/02/28. Weekly close was below that formidable trendline supporting my view of 585 in the next 20 days.

*** What is not seen however is how on 05 April 2007 a false break was calculated ahead of ‘false break formation debut’ on 16 April that lasted the 08 days.




Oldies Kryptonite:


- Bi-Monthly free Trade of 55 pips: Mission Completed.

Reminder of the trade: Long 24185 targeting 24240


- ForexSurvivor EURCAD Long Term Trade is approaching its target at 14930. This Week, eurcad lowered to 15250, and at 15000 we are getting out of our long term trade. It pays being patient as its interest rate is favouring the trade. This week: No Change in View – we are on hold.

ü Yen is in the last phase of its correction. Sharply resumption of its upward trend is expected within the next 3 days. This week: Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high, and the unwinding of long yen is not muted during the Golden Week of Japan.





Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer

Psychological Pound Trading Week & Schizo weeks ahead

Fractural Long Term Note: We would espy psychological levels in all majors in the near foreseeable future, and we would scrutinize levels not seen not in 5 or 10, but at least 15/20 years and above. Euro has started to form a wedge that will have a potential sharp decline, and the formation is only at the beginning. Once formation is complete and wedge base is broken, we will trade the resistance of that wedge for our long term target at 110, and we will add to the position on a new yearly high if made by 177 pips exact. For demonstrability, my wedge formation is not of course on the 5 min charts.

Notwithstanding persistent warnings that pound is ratcheting up towards the psycho level at 2.000 that was

- ForexSurvivor target since January 2007 (see the reminder text below), and that
- Our entries levels would more be on the Long hits and very few on the Short hits

I was surprised to receive plenty of recommendations on how to ‘Survive’ Short sterling around 197/198?

Click here to find ForexSurvivor GBPUSD trade since January 2007 achieving 801 pips. The lowest level seen among my trades signal is 19218 and the highest is 20090, which is equal to 872 pips. Mmm… GBPUSD had been convincingly ForexSurvivor friend along its trend so far this year.

Revising the above trades myself, I am swimmingly surprised that none bulldozed the thirty to fifty scales ForexSurvivor average loss per signal. You may note as well that only Short signals required ‘surviving’ signal tactic.

Since we have approached the pound psycho level, I would re-pass briefly the Pound Letter that was launched on January 2007, so you may reconsider a better strategy for your short trades.

European securities’ facing new high pricing measures as Presidential Election is approaching

MAJORS MAJORING NEW HIGHS (LOWS)


Euro running new yearly highs, so Pound should; the latter is on the way to the psycho level of 2.000, and so Dollar should (new Low). But when? Why the market always reaches psychological levels when liquidity is low or volume is low? Does it mean then that the market is pricing levels that are not correlated with fundamentals issues? Very true so.


Market depleted euro long term downtrend of almost 12 years, and the weekly close today is pivotal. Either 330 pips up or down, are the next short term trend target.


I would prefer the short trend to gain access to 13700 at least so the *trap* would be filled enormously with bulls, where media buzz accelerates the target to 160 – France near term election will add the pressure on new highs. ForexSurvivor Euro Long Term Target is 110, and such momentum gains a debut movement after France election. My target preference is reachable by all means.



Stay tuned with our news because we will pass a splashing hint in one of our Newsletter between April & March as to when Our Long Term EURO trend takes effect towards 110.


Equities behaviour is not compelling my expectations. They have the run towards new yearly highs, where some have already did like DAX, and awaiting S&P, so to correct the high of the sudden false disarrays that took place last month. Recall: Dow tumbled as it screened falsely last month; nice evasion to present to traders.



*** Vicious equities flooring is to be screened this month targeting at least MA200 on daily charts.

Oldies Kryptonite:

ForexSurvivor EURCAD Long Term Trade is approaching its target at 14930. However Cad positions on the screens is on consolidation phase after years of trending. Lulling around is the nickname for the year, few ups, and few downs…Needless to say, the market lulls when security pricing endorses the consolidation angle. It is the safest currency that can play well the technical indicator on your 5 mn chart. Prerequisite: check oil trend always, and ForexSurvivor bid is fix for summer season at least.

For traders who are concerned with eurjpy positions, I closed the long signal portfolio that I hold it as safe haven & awaiting the chute towards 15800 the least.

Anthony Samaha

Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Please Click Here to find Our Weekly Closed Trades of 527 pips.

G7 & Low Liquidity Trading for Easter.

Briefly, and before Easter Holiday, I have the inclination to present my open securities in very short and solid studies.

• G7 speculation last time has triggered Yen Strength. G7 this time has not the same agendum, and till then Yen Rollercoaster Craze is a ride of no forget.
• AUD is expected to retrace 150 pips the least.
• EURCHF – Topped, OB again on monthly charts, and a buy dip is a nice idea for a ‘camping trip’ towards 1.7
  
• EURNZD striving its year lows and momentum is extremely bearish. 18823 is in the offing.
• Dax, has approached its yearly high, and from here with some help of other equities, vicious tumble is to be gauged by mid April, maybe further than the mid a bit.
• Gold is in nice daily pennant triangle. That does not mean sell top/ buy dips. Market does not let you a joy of a nice straight drawing, so expect false breaks from either side. Affording false breaks if any, 585 is of no escape.

Oldies Kryptonite:


Oil & its correction: In my previous Newsletter, I entangled short details about Oil and my Political View. Specifically I have mentioned that “Our long Term trades has translated the tension ahead of time, and correction (short term) is expected after the weekend.” This Week: Indeed Oil Correction took place after the weekend and the situation with Iran calmed down. Had I known that my Oil Correction View will let the situation calm down with Iran, then I should be hoping to be living and trading in an Oil Correction Cycle all the time.


Tread Carefully: The market narrowed its wave to 23900 which should be corrected to 24100.
This Week: GBPCHF screened finally 24100 and ForexSurvivor Long Term GBPCHF trade has been closed enjoying 720 pips.



Click here to find below Weekly Closed Trades of 271.5 pips.

Does Iran benefit when Oil is expensive?

Does Iran benefit when Oil is expensive?

Of course it does. And Oil trend is becoming more beneficial to Iran.

What is wrong with Iran and its Nuclear Issue, and how is affecting the market?

Politically speaking, it is a worrying issue, but in reality it is not.

Worrying issues: If there is a decision about having a worldwide war with Iran, we would encounter un-thinkable consequences on crude oil, US, and especially Japan since the latter highly relies on oil. It won’t be an Iraq army-war as much as a well burning-oil effect on all sort of industries. Result: Rapid crashing businesses and number one would be Technology Sector before transportation sector.

Reality: US is not planning to plunge itself with expensive oil damages that might be a good cause of Iran war, at least yet. If the US is ready to bear oil expensive consequences, its margin may be endurable for $100/barrel, which is a near term target anyway.

The consequence of Iran was tested murmuringly this week [Iran fired at a US ship (rumor)] where oil reached $68/barrel, and then the move gave up its test where oil backed to $63 (Thursday). Any serious tension with Iran, expect oil to reach $200/barrel within a rapid move of countable –finger days. Something I consider a ‘suicide’ strategic plan for the US, and no ‘survival’ method to catch that trend in a bearish market.


Our long Term trades has translated the tension ahead of time, and correction (short term) is expected after the weekend.

To finalize, higher oil prices is negative for the dollar (because it is harmful to the US economy) and eurusd target becomes lower than 13700. This is valid as long as oil prices rise much further; it seems such move is foreseeable future raise.

Euro wave between 13200 and 13700 is going to be misconstrued and lot of media trend up buzz will be stubborn towards 160, and since April is the month where long term traders position themselves for summer time, a nice trap is on the built. Remind me when September shows up! Long term EURUSD target is 110 and not 160, and that view will be updated by mid Jun. Confirmation of 110 is when euro starts screening below 13100.

Question for Analysis:
why the US would need the oil price to be expensive?

Asia competitive market has the answer.

Check here to find more about our Weekly Closed Trades of 346 pips.