Non Forex Premise: Crude oil, Gold, & Dow.

CAD strength continues & AUD dip for bulls

Market agitated ferociously on Friday with China events, and we are on the wonder whether China means Japan – when you visit China, make sure you have Yen monies. PBOC had a decision today, and yen exchanges (not CNY) flourished to route a spiking U behaviour when US welcomed the opening hours. With such a routing, it is worth studying our Yen Closing Trades (table bottom) to scrutinize how deficient or defiant our signals are when market faces high volatility ( and pass a visit as well next week to note the yen closing trades for the complete picture). We end up with twelve pips trading ¥ pairs, and with our open ¥ positions, we expect the charting pips to over-stretch to at least 3 figures all together next week.

Petroleum worldwide is manoeuvring a strong demand rebound than expected as OPEC supplies are reduced and global petroleum inventories are shifting to the ‘oversold’ zone in the coming months when seasonal demand rallies again. As such, Oil target has been jotted down on the 77$/barrel for this quarter. Being on the sidelines is a good strategy till that correction runs its course, then we will be looking with the Canadian at the buying level that will generate a double digit return for them to scale a good measurement in its books. Such level should be capitulating around the $60.

Gold is heading towards 5/6 weeks of long liquidation cycle, reflecting a firmer US dollar and benign inflation. ForexSurvivor target near term is $585 and has been set since 05 April - you may check that newsletter date as the strategy since then has no changes.

Equities are running towards the sky, and as soon as the news hints for a massive appalling reaction among NASDAQ, Dax, S&P, and Dow, make sure you are online triggering a ‘short’ click on the one that would show a fleeting impact. It will follow within hour on a slow motion, showing a sign of ‘why I should follow the others.’ In the end, either they are all on the long side or on the short side. I always prefer the Dow (although it is the first one that prices a quick reversal) in such a theme where 200/300 pips are squirrelly collected. A reminiscent disadvantage of such theme is that you may need to wait month(s) for this to happen.


Signal Epitome
Golden performer this week was GOLD with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by the Pound and its allies - mainly GBPAUD; while Yen was still poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom was an approach, followed by eursgd that bulldozed a minor spread loss.


Oldies Kryptonite:

ü EURJPY angled a new yearly top for a third week. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling. This week: YEN cross tested the top again, and it is proving that there is no further interest in having a long euro. The focus remains towards a vicious tumble where weekly pinnacle is a fulcrum that should spark an even greater decline back to 15800.


ü USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ This week: CAD strength continues and the move adopted a small retracement as was calculated. Another retracement shall be adopted, and might be higher than the previous one slightly.

ü AUDUSD whopping New Jobs Data previous week spurred AUD higher, and puts a rate rise back on the call by June/July. Any setback should not keep the AUD from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then. This week: AUD achieved a sit-back, and with some confirmation that bottom is in place, target is in the offing.

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer


*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Eurjpy Crested & 15700 Near Term Target; Euraud Edifice Is Establishing Not A Nadir Yet.

The week started almost with no major exchanges distances between supports and resistances, and constraints in risk-reward ratio did not allow exploitation for entering trades with major pips allocation. As such, forex average closing trades were ±20 pips this week. Not that satisfactory, and even with those major events this week market was preoccupied with dullness till Thursday.


As strange as it may sound, this is the first week in 2007 where ForexSurvivor shares out so many signals with very few allocated pips, not mentioning repeating some signals twice or more.


CRUDE OIL was the best performer this week with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by commodities (aud or nzd); while Yen was poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom was an approach.


Pecuniary resources was the Kiwi trade which was strategically set as a counter trend signal since April 10, and target achieved 30 days later. Reminder of the ‘completed’ signal: Short nzdusd @ 7330 in an uptrend, targeting 7275.


Last week, prepared sundries emphasized the writing-off the top of the Aussie, and AUD stratagem data charted gimmickry within rollercoaster behaviour to annul the concept of no top formation. Of help, was the whopping New Jobs Data that spurs AUD higher, and puts a rate rise back on the call by June/July. Any setback should not keep the AUD from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then.


Oldies Kryptonite:

Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high for a second week. Monthly May Candle’ tail is being on the built and the near term proviso is to trade below today’s closing week. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling.

This week: Finally, after the Golden Week was over, Asian currencies adopted the awaited bullish Yen retracement momentum.


USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’

This week: CAD strength continues and the move is adopting a small retracement for further strength.

NFP Lousy momentum snorted the rally & not to unchartered territories

NFP week has become very tedious and unprofitable. As a daily trader, we wait for the whole week to have the NFP released and all we get a snorting rally, not surpassing 50 pips.

Media, reports, news, and many others are exaggerating in presenting NFP for the whole week and it is becoming an exasperation module to lessen trades for a whole week just to hear in the end the usual comments: real figure and the ‘revised’ never matches.

That weekly ‘litmus test’ has no more the same trading behaviour as the old years where at least twitchy 150/300 pips were used to spike within hours. We know that G7 decided to annul spikes on launching figures, but if they want us to trade solely on Interest rate, let us know so we can pack our materials and stay comfortably at home.

Pricking that NFP lousy balloon so let my newsletter survive a reliable commentary, I like to shift my writing to the CAD analysis.

USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220 where you should add to your bearish signal or open a nice short signal as CAD strength has not terminated its BOC weekly release. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ Unfortunately, we don’t leave as we are daily traders of so many securities around. On the other part, eurcad has traded well towards my target which has been set for the long term at 14930.

Funny is why we don’t have a credence for the ‘bullish’ market?


Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer


*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***