GBPUSD Free Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips

June 15 - 22 Spot Trade:

Currency: GBPUSD
Trade Objective: Bouncing on a Stop Loss hit.
Chart: Daily
Trade volatility: medium to high
Trade duration once triggered: min 10mn, max 4 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Updates: Please follow its updates by visiting http://www.forexsurvivor.com/ on NonySqueakWire headlines. In case we are stuck with that trade, where probability is 3%, please email support@forexsurvivor.com (members or readers) for immediate update.
Trade the signal that triggers first, where the second signal becomes nullified.


SHORT 19591 Target 15 Pips Exact @ 19576
OR
LONG 19796 Target 15 Pips Exact @ 19811
Enjoy Pound trade.

Non Forex Premise: Crude oil, Gold, & Dow.

CAD strength continues & AUD dip for bulls

Market agitated ferociously on Friday with China events, and we are on the wonder whether China means Japan – when you visit China, make sure you have Yen monies. PBOC had a decision today, and yen exchanges (not CNY) flourished to route a spiking U behaviour when US welcomed the opening hours. With such a routing, it is worth studying our Yen Closing Trades (table bottom) to scrutinize how deficient or defiant our signals are when market faces high volatility ( and pass a visit as well next week to note the yen closing trades for the complete picture). We end up with twelve pips trading ¥ pairs, and with our open ¥ positions, we expect the charting pips to over-stretch to at least 3 figures all together next week.

Petroleum worldwide is manoeuvring a strong demand rebound than expected as OPEC supplies are reduced and global petroleum inventories are shifting to the ‘oversold’ zone in the coming months when seasonal demand rallies again. As such, Oil target has been jotted down on the 77$/barrel for this quarter. Being on the sidelines is a good strategy till that correction runs its course, then we will be looking with the Canadian at the buying level that will generate a double digit return for them to scale a good measurement in its books. Such level should be capitulating around the $60.

Gold is heading towards 5/6 weeks of long liquidation cycle, reflecting a firmer US dollar and benign inflation. ForexSurvivor target near term is $585 and has been set since 05 April - you may check that newsletter date as the strategy since then has no changes.

Equities are running towards the sky, and as soon as the news hints for a massive appalling reaction among NASDAQ, Dax, S&P, and Dow, make sure you are online triggering a ‘short’ click on the one that would show a fleeting impact. It will follow within hour on a slow motion, showing a sign of ‘why I should follow the others.’ In the end, either they are all on the long side or on the short side. I always prefer the Dow (although it is the first one that prices a quick reversal) in such a theme where 200/300 pips are squirrelly collected. A reminiscent disadvantage of such theme is that you may need to wait month(s) for this to happen.


Signal Epitome
Golden performer this week was GOLD with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by the Pound and its allies - mainly GBPAUD; while Yen was still poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom was an approach, followed by eursgd that bulldozed a minor spread loss.


Oldies Kryptonite:

ü EURJPY angled a new yearly top for a third week. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling. This week: YEN cross tested the top again, and it is proving that there is no further interest in having a long euro. The focus remains towards a vicious tumble where weekly pinnacle is a fulcrum that should spark an even greater decline back to 15800.


ü USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ This week: CAD strength continues and the move adopted a small retracement as was calculated. Another retracement shall be adopted, and might be higher than the previous one slightly.

ü AUDUSD whopping New Jobs Data previous week spurred AUD higher, and puts a rate rise back on the call by June/July. Any setback should not keep the AUD from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then. This week: AUD achieved a sit-back, and with some confirmation that bottom is in place, target is in the offing.

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer


*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Eurjpy Crested & 15700 Near Term Target; Euraud Edifice Is Establishing Not A Nadir Yet.

The week started almost with no major exchanges distances between supports and resistances, and constraints in risk-reward ratio did not allow exploitation for entering trades with major pips allocation. As such, forex average closing trades were ±20 pips this week. Not that satisfactory, and even with those major events this week market was preoccupied with dullness till Thursday.


As strange as it may sound, this is the first week in 2007 where ForexSurvivor shares out so many signals with very few allocated pips, not mentioning repeating some signals twice or more.


CRUDE OIL was the best performer this week with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by commodities (aud or nzd); while Yen was poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom was an approach.


Pecuniary resources was the Kiwi trade which was strategically set as a counter trend signal since April 10, and target achieved 30 days later. Reminder of the ‘completed’ signal: Short nzdusd @ 7330 in an uptrend, targeting 7275.


Last week, prepared sundries emphasized the writing-off the top of the Aussie, and AUD stratagem data charted gimmickry within rollercoaster behaviour to annul the concept of no top formation. Of help, was the whopping New Jobs Data that spurs AUD higher, and puts a rate rise back on the call by June/July. Any setback should not keep the AUD from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then.


Oldies Kryptonite:

Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high for a second week. Monthly May Candle’ tail is being on the built and the near term proviso is to trade below today’s closing week. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling.

This week: Finally, after the Golden Week was over, Asian currencies adopted the awaited bullish Yen retracement momentum.


USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’

This week: CAD strength continues and the move is adopting a small retracement for further strength.

NFP Lousy momentum snorted the rally & not to unchartered territories

NFP week has become very tedious and unprofitable. As a daily trader, we wait for the whole week to have the NFP released and all we get a snorting rally, not surpassing 50 pips.

Media, reports, news, and many others are exaggerating in presenting NFP for the whole week and it is becoming an exasperation module to lessen trades for a whole week just to hear in the end the usual comments: real figure and the ‘revised’ never matches.

That weekly ‘litmus test’ has no more the same trading behaviour as the old years where at least twitchy 150/300 pips were used to spike within hours. We know that G7 decided to annul spikes on launching figures, but if they want us to trade solely on Interest rate, let us know so we can pack our materials and stay comfortably at home.

Pricking that NFP lousy balloon so let my newsletter survive a reliable commentary, I like to shift my writing to the CAD analysis.

USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220 where you should add to your bearish signal or open a nice short signal as CAD strength has not terminated its BOC weekly release. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ Unfortunately, we don’t leave as we are daily traders of so many securities around. On the other part, eurcad has traded well towards my target which has been set for the long term at 14930.

Funny is why we don’t have a credence for the ‘bullish’ market?


Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer


*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Yen & Equities Invincibility: No Room 4 Complacency!?

Yen Japanese Golden Week is usually famous by illiquidity behaviour and low volume and as such there is no respect for your supports or resistances, and closing week/month. Although the weekly close is low, and expectation to be the same during the end of April, a scary reversal move is of no escape. Coinciding with ‘end of month’ on Monday and closing books, such behaviour should lead to a vicious trend reversal in Yen & Equities, most probably next week.

No change in my view regarding such vicious reversal, and only few weird triggering are needed.
Last, Yen carry trades are exhausted, and the abated daily movements are jousted with their trend lines.

Long Term Yen crosses provisions: eurjpy, gbpjpy, nzdjpy, audjpy, & sgdjpy long term downtrend of almost 2 decades has been halted as of first quarter of 2007. The world is changing and yen can no longer be considered a ‘strong’ currency for the next 5 to 10 years. We will see levels like 350 in gbpjpy, 2.000 in eurjpy, 1.5 in dollar yen, etc… (This small provision has nothing to do with daily.weekly. trades). As for now, I am looking for eurjpy to meet 15000, even lower.

As for Equities, the same warning is implied regarding S&P, Dax, Dow, & NASDAQ. The formation of the top is a yearly one and has almost concluded. We start looking for the bottom to exist this year.


Gold As described on my newsletter dated 05 April, <>

Gold indeed formed a ‘false break candle bars from 16 April and for 08 days before it tumbled to 67285 as of this time of writing. Illustration of false break is seen on drawing a trendline from top 73025 dated 2006/05/12 to the top of 68880 dated 2007/02/28. Weekly close was below that formidable trendline supporting my view of 585 in the next 20 days.

*** What is not seen however is how on 05 April 2007 a false break was calculated ahead of ‘false break formation debut’ on 16 April that lasted the 08 days.




Oldies Kryptonite:


- Bi-Monthly free Trade of 55 pips: Mission Completed.

Reminder of the trade: Long 24185 targeting 24240


- ForexSurvivor EURCAD Long Term Trade is approaching its target at 14930. This Week, eurcad lowered to 15250, and at 15000 we are getting out of our long term trade. It pays being patient as its interest rate is favouring the trade. This week: No Change in View – we are on hold.

ü Yen is in the last phase of its correction. Sharply resumption of its upward trend is expected within the next 3 days. This week: Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high, and the unwinding of long yen is not muted during the Golden Week of Japan.





Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer

Psychological Pound Trading Week & Schizo weeks ahead

Fractural Long Term Note: We would espy psychological levels in all majors in the near foreseeable future, and we would scrutinize levels not seen not in 5 or 10, but at least 15/20 years and above. Euro has started to form a wedge that will have a potential sharp decline, and the formation is only at the beginning. Once formation is complete and wedge base is broken, we will trade the resistance of that wedge for our long term target at 110, and we will add to the position on a new yearly high if made by 177 pips exact. For demonstrability, my wedge formation is not of course on the 5 min charts.

Notwithstanding persistent warnings that pound is ratcheting up towards the psycho level at 2.000 that was

- ForexSurvivor target since January 2007 (see the reminder text below), and that
- Our entries levels would more be on the Long hits and very few on the Short hits

I was surprised to receive plenty of recommendations on how to ‘Survive’ Short sterling around 197/198?

Click here to find ForexSurvivor GBPUSD trade since January 2007 achieving 801 pips. The lowest level seen among my trades signal is 19218 and the highest is 20090, which is equal to 872 pips. Mmm… GBPUSD had been convincingly ForexSurvivor friend along its trend so far this year.

Revising the above trades myself, I am swimmingly surprised that none bulldozed the thirty to fifty scales ForexSurvivor average loss per signal. You may note as well that only Short signals required ‘surviving’ signal tactic.

Since we have approached the pound psycho level, I would re-pass briefly the Pound Letter that was launched on January 2007, so you may reconsider a better strategy for your short trades.

European securities’ facing new high pricing measures as Presidential Election is approaching

MAJORS MAJORING NEW HIGHS (LOWS)


Euro running new yearly highs, so Pound should; the latter is on the way to the psycho level of 2.000, and so Dollar should (new Low). But when? Why the market always reaches psychological levels when liquidity is low or volume is low? Does it mean then that the market is pricing levels that are not correlated with fundamentals issues? Very true so.


Market depleted euro long term downtrend of almost 12 years, and the weekly close today is pivotal. Either 330 pips up or down, are the next short term trend target.


I would prefer the short trend to gain access to 13700 at least so the *trap* would be filled enormously with bulls, where media buzz accelerates the target to 160 – France near term election will add the pressure on new highs. ForexSurvivor Euro Long Term Target is 110, and such momentum gains a debut movement after France election. My target preference is reachable by all means.



Stay tuned with our news because we will pass a splashing hint in one of our Newsletter between April & March as to when Our Long Term EURO trend takes effect towards 110.


Equities behaviour is not compelling my expectations. They have the run towards new yearly highs, where some have already did like DAX, and awaiting S&P, so to correct the high of the sudden false disarrays that took place last month. Recall: Dow tumbled as it screened falsely last month; nice evasion to present to traders.



*** Vicious equities flooring is to be screened this month targeting at least MA200 on daily charts.

Oldies Kryptonite:

ForexSurvivor EURCAD Long Term Trade is approaching its target at 14930. However Cad positions on the screens is on consolidation phase after years of trending. Lulling around is the nickname for the year, few ups, and few downs…Needless to say, the market lulls when security pricing endorses the consolidation angle. It is the safest currency that can play well the technical indicator on your 5 mn chart. Prerequisite: check oil trend always, and ForexSurvivor bid is fix for summer season at least.

For traders who are concerned with eurjpy positions, I closed the long signal portfolio that I hold it as safe haven & awaiting the chute towards 15800 the least.

Anthony Samaha

Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

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